playing the odds
Nov. 26th, 2012 07:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
twoeleventhe powerball™®etc lottery is hovering around break-even expectation these days¹, so i bought a ticket. i'm playing these numbers:
55 56 57 58 59 (35)
to help people understand the odds against winning. that set of numbers is precisely as likely as any other set of lottery numbers to win.
1: mathematically, that is. in practical terms, much smaller sums have effectively infinite utility -- we doubt we could spend the interest payments on the after-tax lottery winnings fast enough² -- so we ought to play those lotteries as well.
2: i admit i have strange notions of utility. i doubt i could spend an income of a megabuck a year, and i'd be a very happy person. otoh, if i had a few billion dollars in mad money, i could think of plenty of uses for it.
55 56 57 58 59 (35)
to help people understand the odds against winning. that set of numbers is precisely as likely as any other set of lottery numbers to win.
1: mathematically, that is. in practical terms, much smaller sums have effectively infinite utility -- we doubt we could spend the interest payments on the after-tax lottery winnings fast enough² -- so we ought to play those lotteries as well.
2: i admit i have strange notions of utility. i doubt i could spend an income of a megabuck a year, and i'd be a very happy person. otoh, if i had a few billion dollars in mad money, i could think of plenty of uses for it.